9 min read
Too Much Debt: How to Tell, and the Debt/Equity Trap
Every screener leads with debt-to-equity, and on a company that has bought back enough stock, that ratio returns a negative number and tells you nothing. The answer is not another ratio. It is a calendar.
10 min read
ChatGPT Financial Numbers: 5 Fields It Gets Wrong
Most wrong numbers from a language model are not invented. They are real figures lifted from the wrong line of a real filing, which is why checking EDGAR does not help: the number is in EDGAR. Here are the five fields to check instead.
10 min read
Covenant Headroom Calculation: Start With the Right EBITDA
An investor who divides net debt by trailing EBITDA and calls the gap covenant headroom has computed the wrong ratio, on purpose, from the lender's point of view. Here is how to find the real one, and rebuild it.
7 min read
Rising Days Sales Outstanding: When It Is a Red Flag
One elevated reading almost never is. What carries information is the gap between receivables growth and revenue growth, and how many consecutive years it stays open.
9 min read
Lease Liabilities as Debt: When to Count Them, When Not
The honest answer is not yes or no. It depends on the ratio you are computing, and one of the four common uses breaks entirely if you count leases without adjusting the denominator too.
8 min read
Goodwill on the Balance Sheet: The Ratio That Signals Risk
Every screener reports goodwill as a share of total assets. That is the wrong denominator. An impairment writes down against book equity, so equity is the number that tells you how much of the company survives one.
10 min read
Which Share Count to Use: The Cover Page Isn't It
A 10-K cover page carries one shares-outstanding figure, dated once a year. It is not the basic weighted average, not the diluted weighted average, and not the fully diluted count in the earnings-per-share note.
8 min read
When an Auditor Resigns: How to Read 8-K Item 4.01
The disclosure lands as a Form 8-K under Item 4.01, and most readers stop at the first paragraph. The information is in the last exhibit: a letter from the departing auditor saying whether the company told the truth.
10 min read
Insider Buying Signal: The Purchase-Date Test
Almost every guide to Form 4 stops at what the codes mean. Almost none ask when the purchase happened relative to what the insider had just learned, which is the question that separates a signal from a scheduled trade.
9 min read
Gross Margin Decline: 4 Causes, and the One Nobody Checks
Three of the four are economic. The fourth is an accounting reclassification that moves the line several points with no change to the business, and it is invisible unless you read the note.
9 min read
How to Read a 10-K in 30 Minutes
A large-cap annual report runs past 100 pages and most of it is boilerplate. Nine parts carry almost all of the signal. Here they are, in the order a professional reads them.
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